Hindu Population Not Reducing, As Minister Rijiju Claims

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India’s Hindu population is reducing, Union Minister of State For Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju claimed on February 13, 2017.

 


 

Census data and growth projections do not back his claim, and population trends indicate the Hindu population will grow by 234 million–or more than the current population of Brazil, the world’s fifth most populous country–to 1.2 billion over the next 33 years.

 

By 2050, India will be 77% Hindu, down no more than 3% over 40 years, as FactChecker reported on April 15, 2015.

 

By 2050, India’s Muslim population will rise to 18.2% from 14% in 2010, according to this 2015 report by the Pew Research Centre, a think tank. This means India will have 311 million Muslims in 2050, if present trends hold.

 

Over the decade ending 2011, the Hindu population rose by more than 138 million.

 

India’s population is 79.799% Hindu, according to Census 2011 data, marginally lower than the 2001 Census count of 80.5%. In absolute numbers, the population of Hindus in 2001 was 828 million, rising to 966 million in 2011.

 

Source: Census 2011

 

Muslim population growth rate faster, but falling fast

 

Population increases are linked to fertility rates–the average number of children born over a lifetime.

 

The fertility rate for Indian Muslim women fell from 4.1 in 2001 to 3.2 in 2010 and is expected to be 2.1 by 2050.

 

Source: Pew Research Centre

 

Hindu fertility rates are 2.5, expected to fall to 1.9 by 2050, below the replacement level of 2.1.

 

However, Hindus are younger, on average, than the global population. So, combined with an increase in life expectancy, the Hindu population will rise even with below-replacement fertility, the Pew report said.

 

So, while Muslims are, currently, growing faster, as the chart below shows, that rate is likely to fall by the next census in 2021.

 

 

(Patil is an analyst with IndiaSpend and Factchecker.)

 

  • vidyanand Shetty

    Also tell what is the percentage increase of muslim population for the last 40 years

  • Madhav Bamne

    Illiteracy is one of the important reasons for population growth. Improvement in literacy rate and giving education in state language would reduce population growth of Muslims.

  • Pavan Kumar Rao

    The extrapolation estimate for 2010-2050 community fertility Rates clearly shows that the Hindu population decreases by 32-1.9 =1.3 rate almost(40.6%), but where as it decreases by 2.5-1.9=0.6 (24%). So the rate of decrease in fertility rate, and results in over all more population quantified at the end of 2050. The statistics confirms what Mr. Minister said. But the analyst Mukta Patil is showing only half truths.

    • Broadsword

      Either you are blind or suck at maths. Read the graph again.

      Hindu fertility decreased by 2.5-1.9 = 0.6 and (0.6 * 100)/2.5 = 24%.
      Muslim fertility decreased by 3.2-2.1 = 1.1 and (1.1 * 100)/3.2 = 34.38% .

      So, overall there has been sharper deceleration in Muslim population growth.

      Furthermore, by the time (if ever) Muslim population overtakes Hindus in India, the population will be so much that we would have to probably migrate to another planet. So stop spreading misinformation and we should urge our leaders to do the same.

      • Pavan Kumar Rao

        fine you are correct,

  • SV ALAPAD

    There is a purpose for a BJP Minister to bring out the issue into discussion. His reason for kick starting it is the ongoing assembly elections where his party is pitched against rivals whom they accuse of favouring minorities, especially Muslims. Hence he is only trying to help polarize voters. We also see planted press reports suggesting counterfeit notes are trying to enter in a massive way supposedly originated from Pakistan (Muslim) via Bangladesh (Muslim). The reports do not tell us why the notes cannot come to India via the porous border we share with Pakistan (terrorists regularly come by that route). The report however say that profit margin on the business is huge (just for Rs.400 a counterfeit note of Rs.2000 is exchanged). Now we know with the huge profit margin, the notes can be brought into India directly through the channels in operation on our Pak border and also through Nepal by bribing govt. authorities on all sides. Then why the Pak Notes travel from Pakistan to Bangladesh to enter into India ? Here also the ‘news’ is expected to help polarization of voters during the election time. Such is the BJP’s nationality and patriotism.

  • Shaik Nazeer Ahmed

    FactChecker Reports -ToI dated 16-2-2017:- Assalam-o-Alei-kum, – (Peace be upon u), my dear scientifically liberated brethren of Secular Mahan Bharath, the great Democratic tolerated Indian citizen, don’t JEALEOUS with minority brethren of your next door neighbor brothers. Verily, all your scientifically calculations would remain only utopian dream of myth concerning with regards to 3 days temporary earthly life.
    Almighty Allah! The Possessor of the kingdom, HE will give kingdom to whom HE will and take kingdom from whom HE will and HE will endue honour whom HE will, and humiliate whom HE will. Nothing is hidden from Allah in the earth & heaven – (Surat Al-Imran). For example, Ms. Jayalalitha, the (late) Chief minister of Tamilnadu-state of India has governed & ruled over the mind, hearts and body of Sovereign Public irrespective Religions of Hindus, Muslims & Christians, she got name & fame in her life. Whereas, the dreams of would be C.M. Shashikala remains only myth of dreams, fallen in to depth of degradation
    of Jailed Karnataka state. The need of hour demand toleration to changing heart & mind to your neighbor brother, so as to march brethren unity, integrity, progress & prosperity of United Secular Nationalism of Mahan Bharath.
    Nazeer Ahmed – Kuwait.

  • Ganapathy Neeruganti

    The population in India is growing. But the demographic pattern in some states is changing abnormally. While the Muslim population is growing at a very high rate in states like Assam, West Bengal, UP, Kerala, Kashmir etc., the Hindu population is growing at a lesser rate. The data quoted above confirms it. If it continues, then there is no guarantee that there would not be another demand for a separate Muslim Nation or introduction of Sharia as in the case of Pakistan or Afghanistan or Bangladesh, which were once predominantly Hindu areas.

  • So Nyuh Shi Dae

    Wow Factchecker giving out misleading articles itself. How about writing this article as “Kiren Rijju is right about Hindu % reducing” and not numbers. Obviously he is talking about percentages. Your own body of the article says Hindus will reduce from 80 to 77%. I call this BS from Factchecker.