PM And Amit Shah Wrong On UP Crime Data

Update: 2017-02-17 01:00 GMT

Uttar Pradesh (UP) has reached “number one” in crime, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on February 5, 2017, repeating the claim five days later. Similarly, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief Amit Shah said on February 3, 2017, that states ruled by the BJP have a better law-and-order record than UP.

The crime situation has been a constant refrain in the electoral battle for India’s most populous state, but the facts--garnered from the Centre’s own crime database--did not support the assertions made by Modi and Shah. In 2015 (the year for which latest data are available), we found that, compared to UP, 27 states and union territories (UTs) had a higher rate of rapes, 21 had a higher murder rate, 19 had a higher rate of kidnapping and abduction, 16 had a higher rate of riots and 18 had higher theft rates.

We also found that many BJP-ruled states had higher crime rates than UP.

A caveat: Crime data nationwide are, often, not an accurate reflection of crime because they are compiled by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), a division of the union home ministry, with data sent by the states.

Some crimes, such as rape and assault, could be hidden or not reported, but others that result in a body--such as murder or dowry death--are harder to hide. For instance, Bihar--India’s third-most-populous state, with the country’s poorest people--has a crime rate lower than more prosperous states with fewer people, such as Gujarat, Kerala, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, as IndiaSpend reported in May 2016. We also reported in March 2015 how UP was misrepresenting some crime and health data.

In general, while northern states tend to under-report crime than those in the south, their crime data largely reflect crime trends.

Modi’s claim: UP is “number 1” in crime, with 24 rapes, 21 attempts to rape, 13 murders, 33 kidnappings, 19 riots and 136 thefts every day.

Fact: The crime rate is calculated per 100,000 population, and by that measure, there are many states with higher rates. Even considering the “per day” measure, rapes registered in UP were a third of what Modi claimed while attempts to rape registered were 4.7% of his claim, although figures for murders, kidnappings, riots and thefts in “per-day” terms are correct with regard to 2015 crime statistics.

Crimes registered per 100,000 people is the appropriate measure, not “per day”: Large states are likely to register the highest number of crimes in absolute terms, although most northern states tend to under-report crime, as we said. UP has 216 million people (2015 mid year projected population), more than any other state and more than every country, save four. An accurate measure of crimes is the rate at which they are committed per 100,000 population. This is called the “crime rate”. The NCRB does not use a “per day” measure.

The rape and attempt-to-rape statistics Modi quoted are inflated by three and 21 times, respectively: There were 3,050, 3,467 and 3,025 rapes registered in UP in 2013, 2014 and 2015, according to NCRB data. Translated to “per day” terms, that is eight in 2013, nine in 2014 and eight in 2015. If Modi was using 2015 data, the latest available, he has inflated the actual figure by three times.

Similarly, in 2014 and 2015, attempts to rape registered in UP were 324 and 422, respectively, or about one per day--4.7% of Modi’s claim.

UP’s murder rate was 22nd, among 36 states and UTs in 2015, down from 2014: UP’s murder rate was 22nd in 2015, 19th in 2014, 21st in 2013 and 22nd in 2012. The murder rate (murders per 100,000 population) in UP has fallen from 2.4 in 2012 to 2.2 in 2015, while the national murder rate has been 2.8 in 2012 and 2.6 in 2015. There were 13 states with a population greater than 10 million with a murder rate higher than UP’s in 2015.