BJP Misrepresents IMF's GDP Estimate, Changes Negative to Positive

The Bharatiya Janata Party put out a misleading graphic on its social media channels quoting the International Monetary Fund. The IMF had released its World Economic Outlook Update, estimating that the real GDP growth for India in 2020 is -8%. However, the party's social media posts dropped the negative sign and projected India's growth for last year as 8%, higher than China's 2.3%, which was, in fact, the only country in the world to have shown positive growth in 2020, according to the IMF.

Below is the graphic in question and here is an archived version of their Facebook post. The tweet has now been deleted and a fresh table reflecting the change has been put out. However, the party has not issued any regret for misinforming its followers earlier.

The table created by the BJP, titled 'Indian Economy Rebounds', shows India leading the world in GDP growth in 2020 estimates and 2021 projections. The graphic also says that the IMF projects India as the only country to register double-digit growth in 2021. This part is true. The next highest real GDP project for 2021 is that of China at 8.1%. For India, the data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis, with FY 2020/2021 starting in April 2020. India's growth projections are -7.6% in 2020 and 11% in 2021 based on the calendar year.

IMF has said that India's forecast for 2021, which was made in October 2020, had to be revised from 2.7% to 11.5%, reflecting carryover from a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2020 after lockdowns were eased. The strength of the recovery is projected depending on access to medical interventions, the effectiveness of policy support, exposure to cross-country spillovers, and structural characteristics entering the crisis. While India's GDP projection for 2022 falls to 6.8%, it is still the highest that year among all the countries listed. GDP from 2011 onwards is based on GDP at market prices with the fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year.