Has Ladakh Really Achieved 100% COVID-19 Vaccination With 1st Dose?

"The Administration of UT of Ladakh has achieved 100% vaccination with the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to all its eligible population, i.e. people above 18 years," read a press release dated July 7, 2021.

Although the press release neither mentions the date the UT achieved this feat nor does it state the number of jabs that helped it cross this benchmark. Moreover, the release, while boasting of 100% vaccination, also mentions that Ladakh's Health and Medical Department appeals to those "who are yet to receive their first dose" to get a jab.

Later, on July 11, 2021, MP and president of Ladakh unit of Bharatiya Janata Party Jamyang Tsering Namgyal tweeted the same claim. He said the UT had vaccinated its entire adult population with the first vaccine dose against COVID-19.

Ladakh became the first Union Territory to have 100% #COVIDVaccination with 1st dose. Thanks #ModiSarkar and heatiest Congratulations to people of Ladakh.

Yes #ModiHaiToMumkinHai #SaafNiyatSahiVikas pic.twitter.com/zNJQVYq6Ad

— Jamyang Tsering Namgyal (@jtnladakh) July 11, 2021

However, this claim is incorrect. First of all, the UT is still administering the first dose to people. After July 7, Ladakh administered about 3,612 first vaccine jabs to people. In fact, on July 12 itself, 430 people got their first jab there.

Secondly, data published by the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) and sourced from the Registrar General of India shows that the projected population estimate of people above 18 years in Ladakh, as of June 30, 2021, is 2,29,908. Data from Co-WIN shows that by July 7, 2021 (when Ladakh administration made the 100% claim), the UT had administered a total of 1.78 lakh people. This is nearly 78% of the eligible population. This means that as of July 7, more than 51,000 first COVID-19 vaccine doses were yet to be administered.

Ladakh's total projected population as of 2021 is 2.97 lakh, according to the UIDAI data. A total of 2,43,356 vaccination doses have been administered to eligible age groups, of which, a total of 1,82,328 first vaccine doses and 61,028 second doses have been administered till date. The Union territory started the third phase of COVID-19 vaccination drive for age groups between 18-44 during the second week of May and reported its highest number of doses administered (24,861) between May 29 and June 4, as per Co-WIN data.

FactChecker tried contacting Namgyal for a comment via email and call, but hasn't got a response yet. We will update the story as and when we do.

How accurate are population projections?

Population projections are an attempt at determining future population scenarios of a country or state based on past available data and a set of assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration rates. The accuracy of these estimates can be understood by understanding how close they have come in predicting India's past population projections.

According to a research titled 'Demographic Scenario, 2025', by demographer PN Mari Bhat, at the Institute of Economic Growth in Delhi, of the 10 projections made till 2001, nine came within 10% of the census estimate for 2001. However, population estimates do have its limitations. Projected populations tend to have a downward bias, because assumptions regarding levels and trends in fertility tend to be too optimistic, the paper highlighted.

According to Census of India, "Medical and health intervention strategies, food production and its equitable availability, climatic variability, socio-cultural setting, politico-economic conditions and a host of other factors influence population dynamics, making it a somewhat unpredictable exercise." Hence enough caution must be exercised to examine the context of various conditions.

Vaccination status of all Union Territories

Of all the nine Union Territories, Lakshadweep has vaccinated 91.2% of its population with the first COVID-19 dose making it the UT with the highest rate of vaccines administered to its eligible population. This is followed by Ladakh (79.3%), Andaman and Nicobar (54.2%) and Chandigarh (53.3%).

When it comes to the administration of the second dose of COVID-19 vaccines, Ladakh leads as it has fully vaccinated 26.5% of its eligible population, followed by Lakshadweep (20.6%) and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (19.8%).