Tourism Ministry: Unexceptional Claims

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A year after Narendra Modi took office as prime minister, claims by the Ministry of Tourism of an 8% increase in foreign tourist arrivals and a 10% increase in foreign-exchange earnings appear unexceptional.

 

We emailed our findings to the ministry last week, requesting comment. There was no response.

 

1. Foreign-tourist arrivals grew 8.1%–which is below the 11-year average.

 

Claim: Foreign-tourist arrivals increased 8.1% between successive years 2014-15 and 2013-14.

 

tourism_arrivals

 

Check revealed:  The 8.1% jump turns out to be below the 11-year average. The official figures for foreign-tourist arrivals in India for 11 years, between 2004 and 2014, show a year-on-year average growth of more than 10 %.

 

Year Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India Annual Growth (%)
2004 34,574,77 26.8
2005 39,18,610 13.3
2006 44,47,167 13.5
2007 50,81,504 14.3
2008 52,82,603 4
2009 51,67,699 -2.2
2010 57,75,692 11.8
2011 63,09,222 9.2
2012 65,77,745 4.3
2013 69,67,601 5.9
2014 77,03,386 10.6
Total 60,688,706 Avg. of 11 years = 10.1%

Source: Ministry of Tourism

 

2. Foreign-exchange earnings: 10% increase–same as seven of past 11 years.

 

Claim: Foreign-exchange earnings increased 10% to $17 billion during 2014-15, compared to $15.5 billion during 2013-14.

 

tourism_earnings

 

Check revealed: An analysis of data reveals that these earnings, in US dollars, increased more than 10% (year-on-year basis) in seven out of the past 11 years.

 

Year Foreign-Exchange Earnings (in US $ billion) % change over previous year
2004 6.2 38.2
2005 7.5 21.4
2006 8.6 15.2
2007 10.7 24.3
2008 11.8 10.3
2009 11.1 -3.7
2010 14.2 27.5
2011 16.6 16.7
2012 17.7 7.1
2013 18.5 4
2014 19.7 6.6

Source: Ministry of Tourism

 

Tomorrow:  Ganga Rejuvenation: Many Attempts Over 30 Years

 

 You can read the other stories from our series below:

1) Overblown, Misleading Claims By 14 Modi Ministries

2) Agriculture Ministry: Old Schemes Renamed, Other Misleading Claims

3) Health Ministry: New Claims, No New Programmes

4) Power Ministry: Marginal Improvements

5) Railway Ministry: 8 Achievements That Really Aren’t

6) Road Transport Ministry: Continues UPA’s Work, Contradicts Own Data

7) Telecom Ministry: Wrong Claims, Bad Maths

8) Sanitation Ministry: Old Wine, New Bottles

9) Department Of Posts: Old Plans On Track

10) Textiles Ministry: Achievements, Carried Over

 

(Manoj K is a graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and the founder of the Centre for Governance and Development. He has a special interest in transparency and accountability in governance and has spearheaded several projects on these subjects. He can be contacted at manoj@cgdindia.org.)

 

References:

Fact Check 1

1. Ministry of Tourism: http://tourism.gov.in/writereaddata/CMSPagePicture/file/marketresearch/publications/IndiaTourismStatics2013_1.pdf
Fact Check 2
1. Ministy of Tourism: http://tourism.gov.in/writereaddata/CMSPagePicture/file/marketresearch/publications/IndiaTourismStatics2013_1.pdf

 

Comments

  1. Amit says

    Hmm Interesting.. so the highest growth rate was at the end of the tenure of NDA government, with improved road network. Over the years it is clear that tourism was on decline, and reaching single digit in the previous few years. By the way any particular region you choose to take 11 years for finding average? And average of annual growth?

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