Tourism Ministry: Unexceptional Claims

   

A year after Narendra Modi took office as prime minister, claims by the Ministry of Tourism of an 8% increase in foreign tourist arrivals and a 10% increase in foreign-exchange earnings appear unexceptional.

 

We emailed our findings to the ministry last week, requesting comment. There was no response.

 

1. Foreign-tourist arrivals grew 8.1%--which is below the 11-year average.

 

Claim: Foreign-tourist arrivals increased 8.1% between successive years 2014-15 and 2013-14.

   

Check revealed: The 8.1% jump turns out to be below the 11-year average. The official figures for foreign-tourist arrivals in India for 11 years, between 2004 and 2014, show a year-on-year average growth of more than 10 %.

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Year	Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India	Annual Growth (%)
2004	34,574,77	26.8
2005	39,18,610	13.3
2006	44,47,167	13.5
2007	50,81,504	14.3
2008	52,82,603	4
2009	51,67,699	-2.2
2010	57,75,692	11.8
2011	63,09,222	9.2
2012	65,77,745	4.3
2013	69,67,601	5.9
2014	77,03,386	10.6
Total	60,688,706	Avg. of 11 years = 10.1%

Source: Ministry of Tourism

 

2. Foreign-exchange earnings: 10% increase--same as seven of past 11 years.

 

Claim: Foreign-exchange earnings increased 10% to $17 billion during 2014-15, compared to $15.5 billion during 2013-14.

   

Check revealed: An analysis of data reveals that these earnings, in US dollars, increased more than 10% (year-on-year basis) in seven out of the past 11 years.

 

Year	Foreign-Exchange Earnings (in US $ billion)	% change over previous year
2004	6.2	38.2
2005	7.5	21.4
2006	8.6	15.2
2007	10.7	24.3
2008	11.8	10.3
2009	11.1	-3.7
2010	14.2	27.5
2011	16.6	16.7
2012	17.7	7.1
2013	18.5	4
2014	19.7	6.6

Source: Ministry of Tourism

 

Tomorrow: Ganga Rejuvenation: Many Attempts Over 30 Years

 

You can read the other stories from our series below:

1) Overblown, Misleading Claims By 14 Modi Ministries

2) Agriculture Ministry: Old Schemes Renamed, Other Misleading Claims

3) Health Ministry: New Claims, No New Programmes

4) Power Ministry: Marginal Improvements

5) Railway Ministry: 8 Achievements That Really Aren’t

6) Road Transport Ministry: Continues UPA’s Work, Contradicts Own Data

7) Telecom Ministry: Wrong Claims, Bad Maths

8) Sanitation Ministry: Old Wine, New Bottles

9) Department Of Posts: Old Plans On Track

10) Textiles Ministry: Achievements, Carried Over

 

(Manoj K is a graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and the founder of the Centre for Governance and Development. He has a special interest in transparency and accountability in governance and has spearheaded several projects on these subjects. He can be contacted at manoj@cgdindia.org.)

 

References:

Fact Check 1

1. Ministry of Tourism: http://tourism.gov.in/writereaddata/CMSPagePicture/file/marketresearch/publications/IndiaTourismStatics2013_1.pdf Fact Check 2 1. Ministy of Tourism: http://tourism.gov.in/writereaddata/CMSPagePicture/file/marketresearch/publications/IndiaTourismStatics2013_1.pdf