A year after Narendra Modi took office as prime minister, claims by the Ministry of Tourism of an 8% increase in foreign tourist arrivals and a 10% increase in foreign-exchange earnings appear unexceptional.

We emailed our findings to the ministry last week, requesting comment. There was no response.

1. Foreign-tourist arrivals grew 8.1%--which is below the 11-year average.

Claim: Foreign-tourist arrivals increased 8.1% between successive years 2014-15 and 2013-14.

tourism_arrivals

Check revealed: The 8.1% jump turns out to be below the 11-year average. The official figures for foreign-tourist arrivals in India for 11 years, between 2004 and 2014, show a year-on-year average growth of more than 10 %.

Year Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India Annual Growth (%)
2004 34,574,77 26.8
2005 39,18,610 13.3
2006 44,47,167 13.5
2007 50,81,504 14.3
2008 52,82,603 4
2009 51,67,699 -2.2
2010 57,75,692 11.8
2011 63,09,222 9.2
2012 65,77,745 4.3
2013 69,67,601 5.9
2014 77,03,386 10.6
Total 60,688,706 Avg. of 11 years = 10.1%

Source: Ministry of Tourism

2. Foreign-exchange earnings: 10% increase--same as seven of past 11 years.

Claim: Foreign-exchange earnings increased 10% to $17 billion during 2014-15, compared to $15.5 billion during 2013-14.

tourism_earnings

Check revealed: An analysis of data reveals that these earnings, in US dollars, increased more than 10% (year-on-year basis) in seven out of the past 11 years.

Year Foreign-Exchange Earnings (in US $ billion) % change over previous year
2004 6.2 38.2
2005 7.5 21.4
2006 8.6 15.2
2007 10.7 24.3
2008 11.8 10.3
2009 11.1 -3.7
2010 14.2 27.5
2011 16.6 16.7
2012 17.7 7.1
2013 18.5 4
2014 19.7 6.6

Source: Ministry of Tourism

Tomorrow: Ganga Rejuvenation: Many Attempts Over 30 Years

You can read the other stories from our series below:

1) Overblown, Misleading Claims By 14 Modi Ministries

2) Agriculture Ministry: Old Schemes Renamed, Other Misleading Claims

3) Health Ministry: New Claims, No New Programmes

4) Power Ministry: Marginal Improvements

5) Railway Ministry: 8 Achievements That Really Aren’t

6) Road Transport Ministry: Continues UPA’s Work, Contradicts Own Data

7) Telecom Ministry: Wrong Claims, Bad Maths

8) Sanitation Ministry: Old Wine, New Bottles

9) Department Of Posts: Old Plans On Track

10) Textiles Ministry: Achievements, Carried Over

(Manoj K is a graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and the founder of the Centre for Governance and Development. He has a special interest in transparency and accountability in governance and has spearheaded several projects on these subjects. He can be contacted at manoj@cgdindia.org.)

References:

Fact Check 1

1. Ministry of Tourism: http://tourism.gov.in/writereaddata/CMSPagePicture/file/marketresearch/publications/IndiaTourismStatics2013_1.pdf Fact Check 2 1. Ministy of Tourism: http://tourism.gov.in/writereaddata/CMSPagePicture/file/marketresearch/publications/IndiaTourismStatics2013_1.pdf

Manoj K